Episode 131
VENEZUELA: Oil Money Reach Banks & more – 22nd Jan 2026
A proposed overhaul of the hydrocarbons rules to lure investors, the Vatican’s behind-the-scenes attempt to avoid a military outcome, Venezuelan migrants across Latin America weighing a return home, Rafael Tudares released, Trump’s controversial map, and much more!
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“The Biggest Questions About Venezuelan Oil” by Anas Alhajji: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-motivations-for-seizing-controlling-venezuelan-oil-by-anas-alhajji-2026-01
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Transcript
Buenos días from Gracia! This is the Rorshok Venezuela Update from the 22nd of January twenty twenty-six. A quick summary of what's going down in Venezuela.
On Tuesday the 20th, interim president Delcy Rodríguez said the country received about three hundred million US dollars from oil sales tied to the new post-Maduro arrangement. She framed it as an early sign that oil revenue is moving again. She also described the next step: The government plans to route the funds through four Venezuelan banks, and those banks would sell dollars to local companies that need foreign currency, especially importers. If dollars will actually reach the market in a usable way so businesses can pay for basics like medicine remains to be seen.
Next up, on Thursday the 15th, the National Assembly leadership said it wants to change Venezuela’s hydrocarbons framework to attract investment through expanded partnership-style contracts. Jorge Rodríguez, the head of the National Assembly and Delcy Rodríguez’s brother, has been one of the main public faces of that push. Officials argue the new models could bring in capital and technical support the industry needs.
Maduro may be gone for now, but the power structure isn’t. Other Chavista heavyweights are still in place — and the U.S. has been willing to engage them. On Friday the 16th, U.S. officials put Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello at the center of the post-Maduro picture. Reuters reported the US kept a channel open with Cabello, pressing him not to use the security services or pro-government armed groups to go after the opposition. Sources say those talks started months before the January 3rd raid that captured Maduro and continued afterward.
On another note, on Monday the 19th, the Vatican confirmed it tried to mediate with Maduro during the Christmas period, aiming to avoid a military outcome. Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State, said the Holy See explored a negotiated path before the raid from the 3rd that ended with Maduro’s capture. He did not describe what was offered or by whom
. Vatican officials acknowledged a confidential exchange and said they were disappointed that parts of it were later published in a way they say did not reflect the full content.
In some good news, on Thursday the 22nd, Mariana González de Tudares confirmed on Twitter that her husband, Rafael Tudares, was released after about a year in detention for political reasons according to chavismo.
Tudares is the son-in-law of Edmundo González Urrutia — a veteran diplomat and opposition figure who says he won the last presidential election based on opposition-published vote tallies, an outcome the government disputes.
And this is why the case drew so much attention before the release. Just two days earlier, on Tuesday the 20th, Mariana said intermediaries approached her in embassy- and church-linked settings with a proposal tied to her husband’s case. She argued she was pressured to push her father out of politics.
His release also comes amid broader prisoner releases since early January, though rights groups say hundreds of people remain detained for political reasons.
Meanwhile, in Washington, on Tuesday the 20th, President Trump publicly floated the idea of involving María Corina Machado in his plans for Venezuela. He told reporters he’s talking to her and “maybe” could get her involved “in some way,” but he offered no details. This puts Machado back in the political conversation — while still leaving everything open-ended: what role, when, and through what channel. And hey — maybe that Nobel medal she handed him at the White House last week didn’t hurt.
On that same day, there was a viral moment online that hit a nerve inside Venezuela. On Tuesday the 20th, Trump commented on the country’s place in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries saying it could be better for Venezuela to stay in the group. Membership in the organization can shape production policy and coordination with other exporters.
Speaking of Trump, on Tuesday the 20th, he posted an altered image on Truth Social showing U.S. flags over Venezuela, Canada, and Greenland as if they were U.S. territory. Venezuelan authorities fired back by urging people to repost the country’s official map as a symbolic action to defend territorial integrity and counter what they called misinformation. That map includes the Esequibo, a region run by Guyana but claimed by Venezuela — a dispute that’s flared for years, and even more since oil raised the stakes. Esequibo is one of the few issues that unites Venezuela’s political camps.
In other recent news, on Thursday the 22nd, two Venezuela-linked oil tankers seized by the U.S. resurfaced near Puerto Rico after effectively going dark — their tracking signals hadn’t been transmitting, so no one could see where they were.
A Reuters witness and vessel-tracking data placed the ships, M Sophia and Galileo, anchored off Ponce. M Sophia was seized on Wednesday, the 7th, while carrying Venezuelan oil; Galileo was seized later, reportedly empty. They’re part of a broader U.S. campaign targeting vessels tied to Venezuelan oil exports.
Industry experts warn that many of these ghost tankers are old and poorly insured, which raises spill and liability risks — and any legal forfeiture process could drag on for months or longer.
Commercially, U.S. buyers are testing the waters again. On Thursday the 22nd, U.S. Gulf Coast refiners Valero and Phillips 66 bought Venezuelan crude cargoes—among the first major U.S. refiner purchases under the US arrangement to move up to fifty million barrels of Venezuelan oil.
The cargoes were sold through Vitol, and sources said they were priced at steep discounts. The pricing reflects both opportunity and risk: Venezuelan heavy crude is a natural fit for many Gulf Coast refineries, but sanctions and licensing still shape who can buy and how barrels move. Interest has been limited so far, with traders sweetening terms to draw refiners back.
Zooming back into everyday life in Venezuela, on Monday the 19th, the Venezuelan human rights NGO Provea flagged that the country has gone about three years and ten months without a minimum-wage increase, the longest stretch in nearly three decades.
The legal minimum wage is still 130 bolívares (forty US cents) per month, unchanged since March twenty twenty-two. The wage stayed fixed while prices and the exchange rate fluctuated, so families have had to adapt through side jobs, remittances, cutting essentials, and delaying expenses that can’t always wait, like healthcare.
On Wednesday the 21st, as Venezuela goes through major changes, Reuters focused on a big question in the post-Maduro moment: will Venezuelans who left come back — and when?. Reuters quoted Venezuelans in places like Colombia and Chile who say they’d like to return and help rebuild, but they’re hesitant to uproot their lives without clearer signs of stability. Some pointed out that key power figures are still in place, and they worry about jobs, safety, and whether repression could re-emerge in a new form.
In some traffic updates in Caracas, on Thursday the 15th, local reporting said roads were closed due to a ruling-party march starting at Plaza Morelos, moving along Avenida México through Bellas Artes and Parque Carabobo, and ending on Avenida Universidad. The closures reshaped commutes and deliveries through the city center and disrupted routine schedules
And to wrap up, a recommended read: Anas Alhajji, an energy economist, published an opinion piece in English on why the renewed focus on Venezuelan oil isn’t just about Venezuela’s economy, but also about geopolitics and leverage in energy markets. He lays out competing explanations for Washington’s approach — from U.S. refinery needs to broader strategic competition — and argues that oil policy is being used as both an economic tool and a geopolitical instrument.
Wanna read the full article? Link in the show notes.
Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!
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¡Hasta la próxima!
